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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd