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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”