A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
