🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site in December and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also earned significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are growing concerned. Proposed legislation introduced on recently aims to prohibit government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry. An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."